Reading the emission schedule
The one part of tokenomics that carries dates — and what can be computed ahead of a cliff.
This lesson has had no expert review. It was written for this platform and against the evidence it cites; nobody has gone through it independently.
Learning objectives
- You can distinguish a cliff, linear release and ongoing emission.
- You can express a release event in days of volume and in dilution.
Check your prior knowledge
Answer these for yourself before reading on. Wherever you hesitate is where this lesson pays off.
- What separates a cliff from a linear release?
- Why is a release date plannable while a governance decision is not?
- What happens to supply if nobody sells?
Core concept
Three forms, three time profiles
A cliff releases a large quantity at once on a set date. A linear release spreads the same quantity over months in small steps. An ongoing emission distributes continuously to users and hangs on a program that can be changed. The same total quantity affects a market entirely differently in these three forms — and only the first two carry fixed dates.
The calendar is the defensible part
Almost everything in tokenomics is a statement of intent: value capture can be changed, incentives can end, governance can adjust parameters. The release calendar is different — it sits in the contract and can be read off. That makes it the part a position decision can actually rest on, and the first thing to check against an intended holding period.
Release is not selling
An unlock makes tokens tradable; whether they are traded is a behavioral assumption. Recipients can hold, stake or post them as collateral. What holds is therefore only: “from this date up to X tokens can additionally be offered, equal to N days of trading volume”. Anyone who derives a price decline from that has stopped marking the assumption as one.
Definitions
- Cliff
- A date on which a previously locked quantity becomes available at once.
- Linear release
- A release spread evenly over a period.
- Emission program
- An ongoing distribution to users, set by governance.
Model
Pull the release dates inside the holding period
Compute dilution per event
Express each event in days of trading volume
Name the behavioral assumption explicitly
Formulas
Dilution from one event
Dilution = released quantity / circulating supply before the event- released quantity
- tokens becoming available on that date
Limit: Measures the change in quantity, not the price effect. Whether the price moves depends on how much of it is actually offered — an assumption, not a derivation.
Worked example
A cliff inside the holding period
- Intended holding period
- 9 months
- Next cliff
- in 5 months, 22m tokens
- Circulating today
- 140m tokens
- Price / daily volume
- USD 0.45 / USD 4.1m
Dilution = 22 / 140 ≈ 15.7 %. Value of the release = 22m × 0.45 = USD 9.9m, which is 9.9 / 4.1 ≈ 2.4 days of trading volume.
A dateable event inside the holding period: 15.7 % more supply, about 2.4 days of volume.
Reading: Both figures are observations. The event becomes actionable only through an explicitly named assumption about what share is offered — and that assumption belongs in the report, not in someone's head.
Interactive model
The worked example, with movable figures. Estimate first what happens — then check.
Unlock in days of trading volume
The amount says how much supply changes — the volume, whether the market can absorb it.
Estimate first, then check
Before you move the slider: the example's cliff equals about 2.4 days of volume. At what unlock size does that become 5 days — and by what percentage does circulating supply then grow?
The starting values are the worked example's own figures — change one input at a time.
Dilution from the event: 15.7%. Days of trading volume: 2.4.
What the model does not show: Price and daily volume are snapshots here. Both can change before the cliff, and volume on the release day itself is not the average volume before it.
Retrieval
Exercise on real data
Read why FDV ignores timing. State in one sentence what the calendar adds that FDV does not contain.
FDV and market cap in the catalog →Application
A mandate holds for six months. Which two calendar events go into the paper, and how do you word them?
Related case studies
Institutional reading
- Asset management
- Does a release date fall inside the holding period, and is it monitored?
- Bank
- Is the assumed sell-through documented anywhere, or merely assumed?
Metrics in this lesson
Key takeaways
- Cliff, linear release and ongoing emission act completely differently at equal quantity.
- The calendar is the only part of tokenomics with readable dates.
- A release is a possibility; selling is an assumption and should be marked as one.