CASE-15 · 16 min
Who bought when
Type of case study: Documented incident. Every figure is quoted from a named source and cited in the evidence register below. How far each source was checked is stated on the record itself.
Scenario
This case works from a real study rather than a constructed scenario: BIS Bulletin No 69 of February 2023 on crypto exchange apps between August 2015 and December 2022 (EVD-2026-0013). The figures below are stated there. The task is a reading exercise for beginners: two of these figures are not about returns but about timing — and they are what explains the rest.
Data
- Period
- August 2015 to December 2022
- Monthly active app users, start
- about 100,000
- Monthly active app users, peak
- over 30m in November 2021, bitcoin at USD 69,000
- Timing of entry
- 75 % downloaded the app only after the price rose above USD 20,000 in December 2020
- Average invested
- USD 900
- Average loss as at 15 Dec 2022
- USD 431, that is 47.89 %
- Behavior after the 2022 events
- large holders sold, smaller retail investors bought
- Effect outside crypto
- little discernible effect on financial conditions outside the crypto universe
- Provenance of every figure
- EVD-2026-0013, verification: details checked
Questions
Which two figures are about timing rather than return — and what do they explain that a return figure for the same period does not?
The last figure says the 2022 turmoil had little discernible effect outside crypto. What may you conclude from that — and what may you not, read next to the Financial Stability Board's conclusion (EVD-2026-0010)?
Analysis dimensions exercised
Sources
- EVD-2026-0013 — Bank for International Settlements, BIS Bulletin: Crypto shocks and retail losses (BIS Bulletin No 69)
- EVD-2026-0010 — Financial Stability Board: The Financial Stability Risks of Decentralised Finance
Institutional perspectives
Advisory · Asset management